Well, another week, another seven days of gawkish chaos, this time we take our attention States-side. When Biden won the 2020 Election, a lot of us on the Left breathed a sigh of relief. “Ah thank Christ,” we sighed. “Finally, some grown-ups in the room”. The problem with grown ups, though, is sometimes even they are shit at things. I mean, look at your parents. They were in charge of you and look how you turned out? You’re not Donald-Trump-shit, but still, you’re sat there reading an article by a veritable stranger and it’s making you question the way you were raised. That’s not normal. What is wrongwith you? Thanks a lot DAD. Still, even when they’re not so great at things, grown-ups tend not to be graceless, tantrum-throwing, Ketchup-smashing, family-separating agents of evil. So, maybe we just have to sometimes accept their mediocrity as a means of escaping mayhem? Perhaps that’s their superpower? They’re beige AF but at least you know where you are with them. They’re Taylor rather than Kanye. Maybe something along this vein should form the 2024 Democrat campaign slogan? Biden / Harris - Look, It Could Be Fucking Worse, Couldn’t It? I don’t think anyone thought Trump would welcome Biden into the job with any grace. Trump doesn’t do grace. A Presidential inauguration is a graceful occasion. Look how that turned out. A weird “America First” fascism rant with even that ol’ bleeding heart Dubya spitting his coffee out, like “that was some weird shit!?!”. The great American tradition of the peaceful transfer of power is the outgoing President welcomes the new one in, shows them round the White House and then, on leaving the Oval Office, that last time, leaves the new one a sweet, little note with some advice and best wishes. Hard to imagine Donald Trump doing any of that. I mean, a note? Perhaps, if his administration had left any Crayola behind. But the message inside? “Hey Joe, Go Fuck Yourself, LOSER, - D”. Much has been said about the downward keel of the American (and British) Right. I look at the Republicans of yesteryear (John McCain, Mitt Romney) and scan back to today’s Q-Anon nutjobs - and have the same reaction you did when you woke up in your Uncle Ron’s bed that New Years: “Wait, how… how did we get here?” How have they gone from reflecting the genuine, at times admirable conservative qualities of the 80s, 90s and 00s to this? Don’t get me wrong. I’m not jacking off to poverty and tax avoidance. But the idea of self improvement and fiscal responsibility for those who are in a position to exercise them - sits well with me. But where are those cornerstones now? Instead, both States-side and in the UK they (along with low taxation and small Govt) have been completely removed from the conservative discourse, replaced with flags or MAGA or in extreme cases: cos-playing lunatics storming the Capitol Building frothing about paedophile pizzerias. Where did the regular conservatives go? Are they onboard with this shit? Cuz I have to be honest: a bunch of shirtless reprobates invading a Govt building while screaming and wearing facepaint seems like precisely the sort of thing your typical 63 year-old Republican Granddad would’ve taken a dim view of, rather than celebrating. And yet, zoom in, and yep, there he is with 'em. How Did We Get Here? My own personal theory is that, as times have got harder, aspiring working class and middle class types who might’ve voted conservative before, have gotten smarter and now align with Left-leaning of Centre Left parties (I know, I know, but bear with me). And that’s meant the Republicans and Tories alike have had to appeal to what’s left: the base level, flag waving morons we see them aping at their conferences, rallies and.. err.. murderous fucking riots. “Mr Trump, how are we going to regain the trust of the £29k-a-year copywriter who just wants to buy his first apartment?” “Don’t worry about it. For every five of him there’s another two thousand flag-waving meth heads who think I’m fucking Jesus” “They think you’re FUCKING Jesus!?” “No! Although tbh even if I were literally fucking Jesus on 5th Ave, it’d be fine at this point” Snark aside, we came out of 2008 with Quantitative Easing the new normal. Subsequently cash’s value dwindled and investors looked to move their wealth into fixed assets (property). A mix of that and pensioners failing to get a good yield on their Govt bonds and so spending their money on 2nd-homes to generate income - meant a lot of flats/apartments/starter-homes were gobbled up. As the cost of living slowly (at that time) increased, and cash devalued, investors were protected: their assets and income ballooned. Meanwhile regular peoples' salaries stagnated and fell in (real terms) value. Your $40,000/year job would now have to offer up a bigger chunk to your rent, to your food, to your petrol. Properties soared in price and moved out of reach for regular people. That, coupled with successive Govts’ failure to build sufficient housing (certainly in GB) created a crunch. Traditional aspiring working class and middle class voters who might’ve voted for conservative parties (both here and in the U.S.) moved further out, in the political landscape, to more closely reflect the despair. They used to bang on about self improvement and fiscal responsibility. Now it's matured (lol) to “It’s bloody immigrants!” or “nationalise the banks!”. Two cheeks of the same arse, I believe, is the expression. They can see their lives have gotten shitter. They just don’t agree on who’s to blame or which simplistic solution to chant at the picket line. WILL THINGS SETTLE DOWN FOR THE 2024 ELECTION? When people don’t have a mortgage, a stake in society, a reason to get up, go to work and keep paying off their investment week in, week out, with a view to, I dunno, maaaybe paying it off quicker or maaaaaybe making enough this year to put a conservatory up, or maaaaaybe sell up, move to the coast and retire early; when you take that away from people, and their lives appear to be this endless, vague, unstable tapestry of rent, debt and instability - well, how do you think they’ll behave, politically? They’re going to be chaotic. They’re more likely to riot. They just want a shot at the social-mobility their parents enjoyed in the 80s, and yet even that is seen as radical, or entitled. “HEY, I CAN’T BUY A HOUSE ANYWHERE. CAN WE GET BACK TO HOUSES THAT ARE 4x ONE PERSON’S SALARY AND THE MORTGAGE IS JUST 25 YEARS?” “All’s I got is this fifty year mortgage at a jacked up interest rate for a 25% share in a £3m maisonette new build - and you can bequeath the fucking debt to your kids. You in?” “Oh fucking wow, yeah, WHAT A DEAL. Is there some way I can sign up for it TWICE?” These are the roots of the political dysfunction, here and in the U.S. If someone has a home and an investment and a future they’re working towards, it’s a fair bet they’d rather stay on the straight and narrow, with a view to living the good life at the end of it. That’s why the Jan 6th Hearing this week is kinda doomed. It may find a way to expose Trump as the despot lunatic we all know he is. It may restore our faith in a couple of Repbs, that they are still at least casually acquainted with reality. But the Michigan and Wyoming Repb candidate debate videos have given us a sneak peak at the type of candidate the GOP are prioritising for 2024. And they are largely vaccine sceptic, mask-hating, Big Lie Trumpsters. Watching Liz Cheney in a debate with these clowns was like watching an exhausted schoolteacher amongst witless seven year-olds on a Friday afternoon (Cheney is currently polling 29 points behind the Trump-favoured candidate, Harriet Hageman). Even if Trump doesn’t run, himself, the 2024 election is going to be ugly. UG-LEEEEE. It’s going to be a groundswell of voter fraud accusation, and anti-science nonsense, cheered on by Fox News presenters and against the backdrop of calls to realign Church & State. We hoped that after Trump left office the Republican Party might take the view that voters had roundly rejected Trumpism in 2020, “perhaps we should try a different approach?”. Instead they seem to be doubling down on the failure. And because peoples’ lives are getting harder, still, and more so, there is a very real risk Trump, or someone very similar to him, will be successful. But America is a deeply divided nation. And whether it’s Women’s Rights, the repealing of Gay Marriage, Gun Control or Drug Legalisation - it seems clear the U.S. is course to open all of its fault-lines (and more) in a geopolitical earthquake in two years. And at present, it’s going to take more than Joe “lowest approval rating ever” Biden to fight this off. I wonder to what extent federalising women’s rights and pursuing the Big Lie will further unravel the fabric of the United States. We could very well end up with a formal or informal calving up of states along party lines. A Blue side and a Red side. The Blue: the progressive capitalists who enjoy the benefits of Stem-cell research, vaccines and safely manufactured marijuana and public healthcare. The Red: a Taliban-lite, low-tax hell-hole where people work 20 hours a day in a Tesla factory and life expectancy plunges to 43. America is on course for a civil war. The only question now is how civil or uncivil that process will be.
